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Bitcoin Moon Math

Bitcoin Price Bounds

~$280T        Global wealth
  21M         Total Bitcoins

Assuming Bitcoin stores 10% of the total value of domestic companies, this gives

     (0.1) * ($280 * 10^12) / (21 * 10^6 BTC)
 =  ~$1.3 * 10^6 / BTC

or about $1.3M per Bitcoin.

This gives a rough range of what the Bitcoin value should be. Increasing the stored wealth increases the number as would an increased global company market capitalization. The 10% was chosen as an arbitrary number. One can easily imagine 20%+ or more as also being reasonable.

As a guide, if Bitcoin should ever significantly exceed the global wealth or still be volatile after being valued at a significant percentage of the global wealth, then this would indicate, to me, a bubble.


As has been said elsewhere, should Bitcoin store a significant amount of wealth to warrant a $1M+/BTC, this would probably come with some significant changes, such as:

The point being that Bitcoin adoption doesn't happen in a vacuum. If the price were to rise significantly, this would bring changes to our everyday lives including the way we do banking.